Export diversification could unlock extra $146 billion by 2035, PwC projects
Export diversification beyond the US market could generate approximately $146 billion in additional growth beyond the baseline path by 2035, according to a PwC Canada report.
With the US launching another round of its trade war with Canada, the Big Four accountancy says Canada has a significant opportunity to diversify exports beyond its longstanding number-one trade partner.
The report – “New markets, new routes for Canadian logistics” – says that unlocking the $146 billion in non-US export growth will require adequate investment into transportation, logistics, and processing capacity.
“Canada has the products the world is looking for, but demand alone will not create growth. The next decade will be defined by whether Canada can move quickly enough to build the infrastructure, processing capacity, export corridors, and commercial relationships needed to reach new markets,” said Michael English, transportation and logistics leader, PwC Canada.
Energy, metals and minerals, and agri-food are the largest strategic opportunities because they can reach global buyer pools and are less dependent on the integrated North American production networks utilized by most manufactured goods (e.g. automobiles and auto parts).
Energy products (primarily oil and natural gas) are the largest strategic opportunity, with a projected value of $106.3 billion in 2035 if Canada’s policy ambitions are achieved.
Canada is well-positioned to meet allied demand for “secure” oil, gas, minerals, and metals (in contrast to geopolitically complicated Gulf energy or Chinese minerals). However, limited export capacity, processing, and port handling could constrain growth, so investment in terminals, processing, and specialized port equipment would be required to take market share.
Agriculture and food products is another sector well-suited to export diversification. Agri-food products are projected to reach $82.7 billion by 2035, making it one of the more actionable opportunities. Canada already exports food at scale and is trusted for quality and safety – but growth depends on expanding processing capacity, modernizing grain and food handling, and improving access to Europe and growth markets.
