Commercial real estate professionals optimistic about 2026, finds Avison Young report

Ninety-seven percent of commercial real estate (CRE) professionals are confident in increased or stable market activity in 2026, according to Avison Young’s biannual Canadian Outlook report. The CRE services firm surveyed nearly 200 of its professionals across the country.

Sixty-four percent were confident that market activity would increase, while 33% said it would remain stable. That is an improvement in sentiment from the mid-year 2025 outlook report, when 45% said activity would increase and 48% said it would remain stable.

Either way, only a courageous few Avison Young respondents expect a decline in market activity.

“Optimism is in the air, with a focus on recovery and growth among all sectors across the Canadian commercial landscape heading into 2026,” said Mark Fieder, principal and president, Avison Young Canada.

In 2025, year-to-date investment volumes were consistent with 2024, with Q3 25 seeing the strongest quarter of sales since 2022.

Avison Young anticipates continued improvement into 2026 based on several factors. Further anticipated rate cuts from the Bank of Canada would positively stimulate investor appetites, and if employment rates and inflation remain neutral to positive, recovery and growth could continue.

The tariff policies of the United States are one major factor that could handcuff Canadian markets.

“Although confidence is the overarching sentiment for the year ahead, we are closely monitoring tariff measures and resulting slowdowns largely driven by declining exports in sectors closely tied to US supply chains, such as automotive and machinery,” Fieder added.

Avison Young expects to see some CRE resurgence across markets due to return-to-office mandates – boosting downtowns and ground-level businesses. Grocery, health, wellness, and medical retailers are expected to have particular demand.

The CRE advisor also sees more cautious optimism for the multifamily sector than others, and pricing gaps between buyers and sellers remain, while industrial is expected to maintain optimism across major fundamentals.

The surveyed Avison Young professionals said they expected higher activity in 2026 for every major metropolitan market in Canada, except for Vancouver, which will remain stable.